Fight on toward goals that keep receding, or exit with most objectives unmet. Trump is agitated, his poll numbers falling below the Plimsoll line, his base fractured between those who back the war and those who remember that he campaigned on ending them.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
This weekend, Donald Trump has begun to say the quiet part out loud -- that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, a formulation more in line with his robber-baron style of international relations.
US President Donald Trump hinted at the possibility of the US seizing Iran's key oil export hub on Kharg Island, suggesting it could be done with minimal resistance. He also expressed his desire to take Iran's oil resources, while indicating potential negotiations and a possible deal with Iran.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
The intriguing bit is that Trump is likely to attend the talks in Islamabad this weekend -- if he does, it will be the clearest signal yet that the US is ready to exit the war with some sort of win to show, since he cannot afford to go for the talks and return empty-handed, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War
Trump said he is unwilling to make a deal with Tehran at this stage despite indications the country wants negotiations.
Despite President Trump's optimistic prediction of a swift resolution to the ongoing conflict with Iran, Tehran dismisses any possibility of diplomatic breakthroughs, citing deep distrust and highlighting the complexities of US-Iran relations.
Fathali further stated that Tehran has instructed its embassy in India to facilitate the Indian government, ensuring smooth operations amid the ongoing regional conflict.
Two Indian ships carrying liquified petroleum gas (LPG) from the Gulf countries crossed the Strait of Hormuz early on Saturday morning, raising the number of Indian vessels safely passing through the war-hit, narrow shipping lane to three.
Rao, who works in the housekeeping section at the airport, informed his parents that he and several others escaped with minor injuries.
The Indian government has reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel to mitigate the impact of rising global crude prices, triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This move aims to provide relief to consumers and oil companies amidst volatile international oil markets.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Despite Iran allowing 'non-hostile vessels' through the Strait of Hormuz, marine insurance premiums are expected to remain elevated due to persistent high-risk classifications and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with experts cautioning that the threat of attacks and collateral damage still exists.
A group of Indian sailors recount their harrowing experience of being detained in Iran on suspicion of smuggling, and their subsequent escape from the country as regional tensions escalated into open conflict.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
By all available indications, the White House drafted a face-saving note and handed it, ready-made, to Islamabad. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was supposed to then post it in the guise of a plea urging Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks 'to allow diplomacy to run its course'. Trump would then graciously accept Pakistan's 'request' and declare a ceasefire. Sharif dutifully posted the message on X. Except that he, or whoever was handling the account, forgot to delete the tell-tale first line visible in the edit history: 'Draft - Pakistan's PM Message on X'. Prem Panicker's must read blog on the Iran War.
Nayara Energy, a private fuel retailer in India, has increased petrol and diesel prices following a surge in global oil prices due to Middle East tensions. This move contrasts with state-owned retailers who continue to freeze prices.
Petrol diesel price today March 20, 2026: IOCL & HPCL hike premium petrol (XP95, Speed, Power) by 2/litre and industrial diesel by 22/litre. Regular petrol in Delhi 94.77, diesel 87.67 unchanged. Full city-wise rates inside.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Petrol diesel price today March 20, 2026: IOCL & HPCL hike premium petrol (XP95, Speed, Power) by 2/litre and industrial diesel by 22/litre. Regular petrol in Delhi 94.77, diesel 87.67 unchanged. Full city-wise rates inside.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the Iran conflict and its impact on global energy supplies during a phone call.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'There is no shortage of fuel whatsoever.' 'India is stock surplus as far as petrol and diesel are concerned.'
Iran has not closed the Strait. It remains open; however, due to current conditions and circumstances, ships are unable to pass through the Hormuz. Otherwise, Iran never wanted the Strait to be closed or blocked, the supreme leader's representative said.
When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.
Let us start with ourselves. If we can reduce our LPG consumption by half, the problem is solved. Reduce wastage. Alter eating styles. Diversify methods of food preparation, suggests Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta (retd).
'We are getting used to the constant alerts to take shelter, listening to sonic booms from jets flying above us, hearing news of neighbouring ports being targeted, and being the only ship in the terminal.'
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Despite international crude oil rates crossing USD 100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions, the Indian government plans to maintain current petrol and diesel prices, ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply across the country.
Qatar has halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after its facilities came under attack amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, disrupting supplies to India and squeezing feedstock availability for key domestic sectors.
Iran's seizure of a British-flagged oil tanker was allegedly due to a collision with an Iranian fishing boat, Iran's official news agency IRNA said.
Adani Group on Monday said it does not handle any cargo coming from Iran or any Iranian-owned ship at any of its ports, as it denied any deliberate engagement in sanctions evasion. In a stock exchange filing, the group said reports of links between any of its entities and Iranian LPG are "baseless and mischievous".
Sanctioning Russian oil would have led to a sharp surge in oil prices to above $80 per barrel levels, which would impact pump prices in the US ahead of midterm elections next year.
